Do camera lenses usually increase in value over time?

Question

I read a lens buying guide that says lenses “most often increase in value over time until a significant change in technology.” Is that generally true? If not, why do lens prices and resale values change over time, and are there any cases where a lens might actually go up in value?

user69369 · Accepted Answer

Empirically, this seems to be false - at least for your "mortal" (as in: not costing 100 000 €) lenses. MSRPs usually don't change/increase through the life of a lens, but the internet has a tendency of making things cheaper the longer they are sold because of the competition.

There's a site called Geizhals (the German word for "skinflint") that compares the prices of some/all vendors - and even gives some statistics about the price over time. Please note that some peaks appear to be wrongly set prices of the vendors - and that sometimes, a product is listed in the list even before sales started.

I made some screenshots of the charts of some semi-random* lenses - The X-axis goes from the first appearance of the lens on the site until today (18-01-02). The Y-axis is in € and displays vendors from across the EU.

_{* As a Canon-user, I know their lenses better than those of the competition. That's why 3/4 lenses are from Canon. If you don't trust my statistics, you can look up all sorts of lenses on the website yourself ;-)}

I also added the release date according to photographylife's lens database and the MSRPs according to Amazon.de.

Now for some "regular" (as in: often used/bought) optics:

Canon EF 24-70mm 2.8 II L USM: Release Date: 2012-02-07; MSRP: 2 319 €; -43%

Canon EF 100-400mm 4.5-5.6 L IS II USM: Release Date: 2014-11-11; MSRP: 2 619 €; -17.4%

Now for some more "exquisite" (as in: not-so regularly bought) lenses:

Canon EF 400mm 2.8 L IS II USM: Release Date: 2010-08-26; MSRP: 10 799(?) €; +1.25%

Leica Apo-Vario-Elmar-T 55-135mm 3.5-4.5 ASPH: Release Date: ???; MSRP: ???; -11.9%

Also, if you look at sites like eBay, the results say the same - you wouldn't find a used 100-400mm L IS II today for more than it cost a year ago. However, some "premium"-lenses (e.g. the L-series from Canon) hold their value quite well, even in used conditions - so they will depreciate less than, say, a Tamron 70-300mm.

As always, there will always be exceptions. The biggest exception will be "premium" lenses (so not your average 18-55 kit lens) that go out of production without successors - think of the Fisheye-Nikkor 6mm f/2.8 or the Canon 50mm f/1.0 L. Also, maybe you get a rare U2-signed 50mm f/1.8 that will cost 1 000 € after their next album release - or maybe you simply get lucky and buy a lens that was "mediocre" when sold, but with a new wave of Lomography or the likes of it, it will be one of the most looked-after lenses in the market? That, however, is speculation - so saying that Lenses most often increase in value over time is like saying "play the lottery - most of the time, you will win!"